A large group of people used as a statistical sampling resource; even if the correct answer is not known, responses tend to cluster around the correct answer. (Read
the full article)
|"The Delphi Poll is a valid statistical tool for prediction, resulting in better than 90% accuracy.
In the 80's. Next magazine (long since defunct) ran a Delphi Poll about the probablity of nuclear war. The likliest outcomes were between India and Pakistan or Israel and some Muslim nation.
If we make it to 2010 the probability drops almost to zero."|
(JURGEN 10/24/2004 6:46:06 PM )
|"Has anyone seen any other good examples of a Delphi Pool?"|
(Jason Feffer 7/28/2006 1:16:41 AM )
|"Better still is to track the performance in making predictions of individuals and to weight the collective prediction with the past successes of these individuals. Publishing the results ahead of events will in effect influence events and create a sort of open source government led by folks who actually know what they are talking about!"|
( 4/6/2009 1:53:28 AM )
|"Can anyone point to a functioning Delphi Pool which one can join?"|
(phred14 9/15/2009 7:36:48 PM )
More info on Delphi Pool
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