 |
Delphi Pool
A large group of people used as a statistical sampling resource; even if the correct answer is not known, responses tend to cluster around the correct answer. (Read the full article)
| "The Delphi Poll is a valid statistical tool for prediction, resulting in better than 90% accuracy.
In the 80's. Next magazine (long since defunct) ran a Delphi Poll about the probablity of nuclear war. The likliest outcomes were between India and Pakistan or Israel and some Muslim nation.
If we make it to 2010 the probability drops almost to zero." (JURGEN 10/24/2004 6:46:06 PM ) |
| "Has anyone seen any other good examples of a Delphi Pool?" (Jason Feffer 7/28/2006 1:16:41 AM ) |
| "Better still is to track the performance in making predictions of individuals and to weight the collective prediction with the past successes of these individuals. Publishing the results ahead of events will in effect influence events and create a sort of open source government led by folks who actually know what they are talking about!" ( 4/6/2009 1:53:28 AM ) |
| "Can anyone point to a functioning Delphi Pool which one can join?" (phred14 9/15/2009 7:36:48 PM ) |
Leave a comment:
Tediously, spammers have returned. Please send your comments to @technovelgy and I'll post them. Thanks!
Current News Articles
Boring Company Vegas Loop Like Asimov Said
'There was a wall ahead... It was riddled with holes that were the mouths of tunnels.'
Rigid Metallic Clothing From Science Fiction To You
'...support the interior human structure against Jupiter’s pull.'
Is The Seattle Ultrasonics C-200 A Heinlein Vibroblade?
'It ain't a vibroblade. It's steel. Messy.'
Roborock Saros Z70 Is A Robot Vacuum With An Arm
'Anything larger than a BB shot it picked up and placed in a tray...'
A Beautiful Visualization Of Compact Food
'The German chemists have discovered how to supply the needed elements in compact, undiluted form...'
Bone-Building Drug Evenity Approved
'Compounds devised by the biochemists for the rapid building of bone...'
Secret Kill Switch Found In Yutong Buses
'The car faltered as the external command came to brake...'
Inmotion Electric Unicycle In Combat
'It is about the size and shape of a kitchen stool, gyro-stabilized...'
Grok Scores Best In Psychological Tests
'Try to find out how he ticks...'
PaXini Supersensitive Robot Fingers
'My fingers are not that sensitive...'
Congress Considers Automatic Emergency Braking, One Hundred Years Too Late
'The greatest problem of all was the elimination of the human element of braking together with its inevitable time lag.'
The Desert Ship Sailed In Imagination
'Across the ancient sea floor a dozen tall, blue-sailed Martian sand ships floated, like blue smoke.'
