 |
Delphi Pool
A large group of people used as a statistical sampling resource; even if the correct answer is not known, responses tend to cluster around the correct answer. (Read the full article)
| "The Delphi Poll is a valid statistical tool for prediction, resulting in better than 90% accuracy.
In the 80's. Next magazine (long since defunct) ran a Delphi Poll about the probablity of nuclear war. The likliest outcomes were between India and Pakistan or Israel and some Muslim nation.
If we make it to 2010 the probability drops almost to zero." (JURGEN 10/24/2004 6:46:06 PM ) |
| "Has anyone seen any other good examples of a Delphi Pool?" (Jason Feffer 7/28/2006 1:16:41 AM ) |
| "Better still is to track the performance in making predictions of individuals and to weight the collective prediction with the past successes of these individuals. Publishing the results ahead of events will in effect influence events and create a sort of open source government led by folks who actually know what they are talking about!" ( 4/6/2009 1:53:28 AM ) |
| "Can anyone point to a functioning Delphi Pool which one can join?" (phred14 9/15/2009 7:36:48 PM ) |
Leave a comment:
Tediously, spammers have returned. Please send your comments to @technovelgy and I'll post them. Thanks!
Current News Articles
Prairie Madness - And Space Sickness
'Space-sickness is one of the most unpleasant sensations that a human being can experience. Not all are subject to it...'
Can Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Control The Weather?
'...I saw a nice black heavy-looking cloud sailing by just now, and I can get the electrical machine out in five minutes to draw it down.'
SETI Suggests Prospecting The Solar System Without Landing
'From a distance it could resolve the cosmic rays reflected from various substances.'
Wolfram Alpha Mathematica Predicted by Science Fiction in 1948!
'The answer to the dumb student's prayer.'
Cislunar Space And The Space Lanes of Golden Age Science Fiction
'He had travelled the space-lanes of the solar system for the greater part of his life...'
NASA Moonbase Update
'The dinner was excellent. It was completely vegetarian — grown in specially prepared gardens in this Moon base...'
Neuralink Will Allow Humans To Communicate With ... Animals?
'Telepaths had their sensitiveness enlarged to an immense range by the pin-sets, which were telepathic amplifiers adapted to the mammal mind.'
Special Lights For Driverless Cars!
'That light is actually the Anamorphic Equalizer...'
'Old People Began to Cross The Continent In Their Own Cars'
'It was a relief to enter one of the comfortable autos, whisper a direction down the tube, and just know that you would be taken to your destination in the quickest, safest, and cheapest manner.'
Harrison Bergeron, Illustrated And Practiced
'But he didn't get very far with it before another noise in his ear radio scattered his thoughts. George winced...'
Starfall Manufacturing Drugs In Space
'The vast spinning sphere of Factory in the Sky loomed above and ahead of us, gleaming white against the unfathomable jet depths of surrounding space.'
The Solar Oberth Slingshot
'And if it doesn’t work,' inquired Lazarus, 'what does that make us? Sunspots?'
