 |
Delphi Pool
A large group of people used as a statistical sampling resource; even if the correct answer is not known, responses tend to cluster around the correct answer. (Read the full article)
| "The Delphi Poll is a valid statistical tool for prediction, resulting in better than 90% accuracy.
In the 80's. Next magazine (long since defunct) ran a Delphi Poll about the probablity of nuclear war. The likliest outcomes were between India and Pakistan or Israel and some Muslim nation.
If we make it to 2010 the probability drops almost to zero." (JURGEN 10/24/2004 6:46:06 PM ) |
| "Has anyone seen any other good examples of a Delphi Pool?" (Jason Feffer 7/28/2006 1:16:41 AM ) |
| "Better still is to track the performance in making predictions of individuals and to weight the collective prediction with the past successes of these individuals. Publishing the results ahead of events will in effect influence events and create a sort of open source government led by folks who actually know what they are talking about!" ( 4/6/2009 1:53:28 AM ) |
| "Can anyone point to a functioning Delphi Pool which one can join?" (phred14 9/15/2009 7:36:48 PM ) |
Leave a comment:
Tediously, spammers have returned. Please send your comments to @technovelgy and I'll post them. Thanks!
Current News Articles
Is It Time For A Connected Edge Node For AI Inference
'Buy a Little Dingbat... electropen, wrist watch, pocketphone, pocket radio, billfold ... all in one.'
Artificial Skin For Robots Is Coming Right Along
'... an elastic, tinted material that had all the feel and appearance of human flesh and epidermis.'
Robot Guard Dog On Duty
I might also be thinking of K-9 from Doctor Who.
Wearable Artificial Fabric Muscles
'It is remarkable that the long leverages of their machines are in most cases actuated by a sort of sham musculature...'
BrainBridge Actual Transplant Of Human Head Proposed
'Briquet’s head seemed to think that to find and attach a new body to her head was as easy as to fit and sew a new dress.'
Google's Nano Banana Pro Presents Handwritten Math Solutions
'...copy was turned out in a charming and entirely feminine handwriting.'
Edible Meat-Like Fungus Like Barbara Hambly's Slunch?
'It was almost unheard of for slunch to spread that fast...'
Sunday Robotics 'Memo' Bot Has Unique Training Glove
'He then started hand movements of definite pattern...'
Woman Marries Computer, Vonnegut's Dream Comes True
'Men are made of protoplasm... Lasts forever.'
Natural Gait With Prosthetic Connected To Nervous System
'The leg was to function, in a way, as a servo-mechanism operated by Larry’s brain...'
Spidery 'Walk Me' Toyota Autonomous Wheel Chair Like Star Wars
Walk along with the emperor.
Dancing Robots Taught Dance Moves
'A clockwork figure would be the thing for you...'
