Wrong Tomorrow - A Brin Predictions Registry?
Wrong Tomorrow is a new site created by Maciej Ceglowski to keep track of the predictions made by public figures. The site has a simple, friendly user interface, making it easy for users to enter the predictions. Ceglowski says:
"I figured it would be nice to have a single place where you could go to unequivocally check the track record of pundits in politics, finance and my own field, information technology."
The site FAQ mentions that research has shown that experts make predictions at a rate worse than chance. The Wrong Tomorrow site "exists in order to hold people and media outlets accountable for pretending to see into an unpredictable future."
The site then holds the predictions, displaying them sorted by author, date and status (see screen shot below).
(Sample predictions from WrongTomorrow.com)
This is a very likable site, and might serve a real social function - cutting down on the total number of blowhards by exposing their poor records. This is particularly true for people who make their living by claiming to see what is going to happen next.
This site might also bring to the fore the people who have an uncanny knack for seeing into the future and highlighting important aspects of it - namely, our favorite science fiction authors.
I'd like to suggest that the site also include a link or reference to the source of the prediction. (It turns out that you need to submit one when submitting a prediction.)
This site is similar to an idea expressed by David Brin in his 1990 novel Earth.
"Anyone who tries to predict the future is inevitably a fool. Present company included. A prophet without a sense of humor is just stupid."
That was how his grandmother had put it, once. And she ought to know. Everyone praised Jen Wolling for her brilliant foresight. But one day she had shown him her scorecard from the World Predictions Registry. After twenty-five years of filing prognostications with the group, her success rating was a mere sixteen percent. And that was better than three times the WPR average.
(Read more about Brin's World Predictions Registry)
Be sure to take a look at the Wrong Tomorrow website. See also David Brin's article Accountability for Everyday Prophets:
A Call for a Predictions Registry. See also my list of ideas from Brin's novel Earth, which now stands at 23 and David Brin's blog post on the prediction registry.
Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 4/2/2009)
Follow this kind of news @Technovelgy.
| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |
you like to contribute a story tip?
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add
Comment/Join discussion ( 1 )
Related News Stories -
China Social Credit System Like State-Run Whuffie
'At least there was no mandatory Whuffie check on the monorail platform...' - Cory Doctorow, 2003.
Sex In Driverless Cars? Updated With Video!
'...admirable for petting.' - David H. Keller, 1935.
Xinhua AI Anchor Puts CGI Face To Automated News
'...a congeries of software agents.' - William Gibson, 1996.
Wirewax Watching You Watch, Adjusting Your Experience
'He adjusted the n, the r and b knobs, and hopefully anticipated a turn for the better...' - Philip K. Dick, 1964.
Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!)
is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for
the Invention Category that interests
you, the Glossary, the Invention
Timeline, or see what's New.
FLIR Black Hornet 3 Palm-sized Drone
These drones can provide situational awareness beyond visual line-of-sight capability.
Dockworkers Protest Driverless Trucks
'It resembled conventional human-operated transportation vehicles, but with one exception -- there was no driver's cabin.'
Flying Car Concept By Kash Sirinanda
'Each one consists of a hub with many tiny spokes... On the end is a squat foot, rubber tread on the bottom...'
Unfurl The Future! Huawei Mate X versus Galaxy Fold
'A paper thin polycarbon screen unfurled silently from the top of the unit and immediately grew rigid.'
Amazon Echo And Google Home Should Have Morality Software
'The Dwoskin Morality Rating-Computer could 'spot the slightest tendency to deviation' from the social norm...'
China Building Robot Wives
'Want a life-companion, a pleasant one?'
China Social Credit System Like State-Run Whuffie
'At least there was no mandatory Whuffie check on the monorail platform...'
Project Soli Radar Gesture Chip Now FCC Approved
'He waved his hand and the circuit switched abruptly.'
Stan, Robot Valet, Will Drag Your Car Away
'He activated the grapple tracks. '
Jibo Home Robot Says Goodbye, Is Killswitched
'It resembles an oyster....'
Johns Hopkins Says Asteroid Deflection Will Be Difficult
'This obelisk is one huge deflector mechanism...'
Fabric Automatically Cools Or Insulates Based On Environment
'...a high-efficiency filter and heat-exchange system.'
Deepfakes From OpenAI GPT-2 Algorithm
'How can you compete with an IBM heavy-duty logomatic analogue?'
John Deere Self-Driving Tractor
'The huge plow... seemed to shake itself - and began to move back southward.'
North Focals Smart Glasses Provide Augmented Reality In Style
'The world ... is drenched in unfamiliar information all the way to the horizon.'
Tesla Driver Caught Napping Behind The Wheel
'Mary Risling settled back for a little nap...'
More SF in the News Stories
More Beyond Technovelgy science news stories