Science Fiction Dictionary
A  B  C  D  E  F  G  H  I  J  K  L  M  N  O  P  Q  R  S  T  U  V  W  X  Y  Z

Home | Dictionary | Timeline | New

Global Crowd Intelligence Needs Your Help

Global Crowd Intelligence (GCI) is an experimental site set up to see if crowd sourcing can improve forecasting accuracy on issues all around the world. Their main focus is to see if it is possible to predict the outcome of current events, like elections, technology and military conflicts.

We use the actual outcomes to score your performance and determine the accuracy of our methods. Forecast topics are not related to actual intelligence operations. The data we collect is only used to improve our forecasting methods. Access levels reflect forecast difficulty and are not related in any way to government security clearances.

You can make forecasts anonymously and we only ask for minimal personal information so we can track and report your progress. We protect any personally identifiable data and do not share it with any government agency or anyone else. Our goal is that you enjoy the challenge of forecasting real-world events, the competitive nature of the site, and the social aspects of discussing future events with other interested individuals. We only use your forecasts to get smarter about how a crowd can make the best possible forecasts.

(Global Crowd Intelligence leader boards)

Here's how you can participate:

A mission is a forecast question about a future world event. Every mission has an opening/starting and closing/finishing time. You accept a mission by providing your own prediction for a forecast question. You can also participate in discussions regarding each mission and see who else is participating. Over time, new evidence may emerge and you may have additional insights. You are encouraged to periodically review and update your active missions.

You earn XP [experience points] when you accept a mission, make a comment, make a forecast, are correct, or earn achievements. You never lose experience. As your experience increases, you will progress to higher levels.

As your XP grows, more missions and capabilities will be available to you. Each level comes with a new ribbon next to your alias. Your dossier shows your current level, number of experience points, and how close you are to the next level. Activities and comments of all analysts are displayed and they show the level of the analyst that provided them. The higher your level, the more likely it is that other analysts pay attention to your inputs.

In his 1975 novel The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner introduces sf readers to the idea of a Delphi pool:

It works, approximately, like this.

First you corner a large - if possible, a very large - number of people who, while they've never formally studied the subject you're going to ask them about and hence are unlikely to recall the correct answer, are nonetheless plugged into the culture to which the question relates.

Then you ask them, as it might be, to estimate how many people died in the great influenza epidemic which followed World War I...

Curiously, when you consolidate their replies they tend to cluster around the actual figure as recorded in almanacs, yearbooks and statical returns.
(Read more about Brunner's Delphi pool)

Brunner presumably derives his idea from the Delphi method, which was created by the Rand Corporation in 1949 to try to improve predictions of what would happen under the Cold War. The Delphi method differs from what Brunner suggested, in that it relied on panels of experts under the guidance of a facilitator. Brunner is a very early pioneer in the idea of crowd-sourced applications, probably because he had already conceived of the idea of a national data-net with hundreds of millions of users.

I'd also like to point out that I've turned comments back on and the contact form is also open.

Take a look at GlobalCrowd.com via Kurzweil AI.

Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 10/17/2012)

| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |

Would you like to contribute a story tip? It's easy:
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add it here.

Comment/Join discussion ( 0 )

Related News Stories - (" Culture ")

Is It Time To Forbid Human Driving?
'Heavy penalties... were to be applied to any one found driving manually-controlled machines.' - Bernard Brown, 1934.

Indonesian Clans Battle
'The observation vehicle was of that peculiar variety used in conveying a large number of people across rough terrain.' - Jack Vance (1952)

Liuzhi Process Now In Use In China
'He was in a high-ceilinged windowless cell with walls of glittering white porcelain.' - George Orwell, 1984.

Animated Tumblebugs On Astounding Cover!
'Gaines and Harvey mounted tumblebugs, and kept abreast of the Cadet Captain...'

	Web TechNovelgy.com

Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!) is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for the Invention Category that interests you, the Glossary, the Invention Timeline, or see what's New.

Science Fiction Timeline
1600-1899
1900-1939
1940's   1950's
1960's   1970's
1980's   1990's
2000's   2010's

Current News

Golf Ball Test Robot Wears Them Out
"The robot solemnly hit a ball against the wall, picked it up and teed it, hit it again, over and again...'

Boring Company Vegas Loop Like Asimov Said
'There was a wall ahead... It was riddled with holes that were the mouths of tunnels.'

Rigid Metallic Clothing From Science Fiction To You
'...support the interior human structure against Jupiter’s pull.'

Is The Seattle Ultrasonics C-200 A Heinlein Vibroblade?
'It ain't a vibroblade. It's steel. Messy.'

Roborock Saros Z70 Is A Robot Vacuum With An Arm
'Anything larger than a BB shot it picked up and placed in a tray...'

A Beautiful Visualization Of Compact Food
'The German chemists have discovered how to supply the needed elements in compact, undiluted form...'

Bone-Building Drug Evenity Approved
'Compounds devised by the biochemists for the rapid building of bone...'

Secret Kill Switch Found In Yutong Buses
'The car faltered as the external command came to brake...'

Inmotion Electric Unicycle In Combat
'It is about the size and shape of a kitchen stool, gyro-stabilized...'

Grok Scores Best In Psychological Tests
'Try to find out how he ticks...'

PaXini Supersensitive Robot Fingers
'My fingers are not that sensitive...'

Congress Considers Automatic Emergency Braking, One Hundred Years Too Late
'The greatest problem of all was the elimination of the human element of braking together with its inevitable time lag.'

The Desert Ship Sailed In Imagination
'Across the ancient sea floor a dozen tall, blue-sailed Martian sand ships floated, like blue smoke.'

The Zapata Air Scooter Would Be Great In A Science Fiction Story
'Betty's slapdash style.'

Thermostabilized Wet Meat Product (NASA Prototype)
There are no orbiting Michelin stars. Yet.

Could Crystal Batteries Generate Power For Centuries?
'Power could be compressed thus into an inch-square cube of what looked like blue-white ice'

More SF in the News Stories

More Beyond Technovelgy science news stories