EVs will get much cheaper, declares Shigenobu Nagamori, chairman and CEO of the world's largest motor maker Nidec."The price of a car will drop to as low as 300,000 yen ($2,890), resulting in a spike in demand for cars," said Nagamori.
Not quite ready to plunk down $50,000 for a Tesla Model Y? How about the Wuling Mini EV for only $4,000!
(Wuling Hongguang Mini EV review and test drive)
The market disruption is already happening, Nagamori said. He pointed to China's $4,300 electric vehicle released in July, which quickly became the country's best-selling EV, surpassing the Tesla Model 3. The car is distributed under the Wuling brand.
Products similar to the Wuling will emerge in India, Africa and South America and expand the entire market for new cars, Nagamori said. The arrival of such inexpensive cars will drive the global car market to grow to 300 million units in the future, from the current 80-90 million units, he said.
"You will be a loser if you run away from price competition," Nagamori warned.
There's no reason to drive around in a huge multi-ton vehicle if you're just getting a few groceries. I recall a passage from The Mote in God's Eye, a remarkable 1974 novel by Niven and Pournelle that may give you a look into the future of tiny EVs:
There were three ground cars, limousines, two for passengers and one for luggage, and the human seats
took up two-thirds of the room in each. Bury nodded reflectively Moties didn’t mind being crowded together. As
soon as they took their seats the drivers, who were Browns, whipped the cars away. The vehicles ran soundlessly,
with a smooth feeling of power, and there was no jolt at all. The motors were in the hubs of the tall balloon
tires, much like those of cars on ‘Empire worlds.
Tall, ugly buildings loomed above them to shoulder out the sky. The black streets were wide but very
crowded and the Moties drove like maniacs. Tiny vehicles passed each other in intricate curved paths with
centimeters of clearance. The traffic was not quite silent. There was a steady low hum that might have been all
the hundreds of motors sounding together, and sometimes a stream of high-pitched gibberish that might have
Of course, the ultimate in small personal vehicles is the auto-car from The Revolt of the Pedestrians, a wry 1928 story by Dr. David H. Keller.