Science Fiction
Dictionary
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
 |
Movie Moguls Put Toe In Delphi Pool
Movie studio executives have found a new way to predict how well a particular movie will fare. MIT professor Chris Dellarocas has conducted an analysis of reader reviews submitted to YahooMovies and Amazon.
The study uses a control-group survey and statistical analysis to show that amateur reviews in the first week of a film's release can predict the long-term performance of the movie.
In his remarkable 1976 novel Shockwave Rider, John Brunner wrote about a method of prediction called a Delphi pool which made use of the fact that everyone in North America was online and expressing their opinions:
Then you ask them, as it might be, to estimate how many people died in the great influenza epidemic which followed World War I...
Curiously, when you consolidate their replies they tend to cluster around the actual figure as recorded in almanacs, yearbooks and statical returns.
It's rather as though this paradox has proved true: that while nobody knows what's going on around here, everybody knows what's going on around here.
Well, if it works for the past, why can't it work for the future? Three hundred million people with access to the integrated North American data-net is a nice big number of potential consultees. (More.)
Another very striking attempt to make use of this kind of idea was the Policy Analysis Market (PAM), a proposed futures exchange developed by our friends at the Devense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). PAM was intended to be a kind of "futures market" for the Middle East; investors could trade futures based on political outcomes in the region.
Find out more about predicting movie succes by analysis of net chatter by reading Online amateur movie reviews predict box office success. The article on Delphi pool has more info on PAM. See the original article Predicting Success From Net Chatter.
First you corner a large - if possible, a very large - number of people who, while they've never formally studied the subject you're going to ask them about and hence are unlikely to recall the correct answer, are nonetheless plugged into the culture to which the question relates.
Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 6/8/2004)
Follow this kind of news @Technovelgy.| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |
Would
you like to contribute a story tip?
It's easy:
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add
it here.
Comment/Join discussion ( 1 )
Related News Stories - (" Media ")
'Facetime Facelift' Beautifies Video Chats
Always look your best - on Facetime.
Meeting Wendy Of Wendy's
Wendy of Wendys meet Rondald of McDonald's.
Narrative Science And Phil Dick's Homeostatic Newspaper
'The structure... was once a great homeostatic newspaper, the New York Times.'
BookTrack Adds Sound To Books
I really don't think this is a very good idea. Readers?
Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!) is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for the Invention Category that interests you, the Glossary, the Invention Timeline, or see what's New.
Science Fiction
Timeline
1600-1899
1900-1939
1940's 1950's
1960's 1970's
1980's 1990's
2000's 2010's
Current News
Biohybrid Robots Made Of Living And Synthetic Materials
'If the biological robots were not living creatures, they were certainly very good imitations.'
Drug Induces Hibernation-Like State In Humans
'... drugged and chilled and stowed in sleep tanks.'
Poul Anderson's 'Brain Wave'
"Everybody and his dog, it seemed, wanted to live out in the country; transportation and communication were no longer isolating factors."
AI Note-Taking From Google Meet
'... the new typewriter that could be talked to, and which transposed the spoken sound into typed words.'
Qore IcePlates Are Personal Cooling Suits
'... underneath they consisted of networks of cooling tubes against the skin.'
P1 Just The Latest Robot To Take A Beating From Humans
'...we mere people come second.'
Waymo Cars Shout At Each Other, Autonomously
'My cars talk to one another. I have no doubt about it...'
Your Solar Electric Paint Is Ready, Larry Niven
'...you spray it on.'
How Long Till We Have These Tattoos?
Truth or fiction?
Seeing Faces On Grains Of Sand (AI Pareidolia)
'... the imprint of her image on the telephoto cell.'
Lunar Biorepository Proposed For Cryo-Preservation Of Earth Species
'...there was no one alive who had ever seen them. But they existed in the Life Bank.'
Tele-Driving Offers Jobs For Tele-Drivers, Not AIs
''...some bored drone pusher in a remote driving centre...'
Autonomous Robotic Dentist - Would You Say 'Ahhh'?
You might be surprised at how much more efficient this could be.
GM Scraps Cruise Origin Robotaxi With No Steering Wheel
'Ames tinkered around with something on the instrument board when he got in; and in a few moments we were off.'
Taza Aya Air-Curtain Tech Protects Turkey Workers
'I'm going to have to buy a filter-mask.'
Torobo Humanoid Robot Hammers A Nail
7-axis dual arms, 3-axis waist (pitch, pitch, yaw), 3-axis neck (yaw, pitch, roll), and 4-axis undercarriage!
